The problem with this play-to-the-white-conservative-populist-base impulse is that it ignores demographic and economic reality. Showing a callous lack of concern for the country's largest and fastest growing minority group – Hispanics – is a slow form of political suicide, the most recent symptom of which was Mitt Romney getting just 27 per cent of the Hispanic vote after calling for "self-deportation" while simultaneously criticising President Obama for not passing immigration reform that Romney opposed when first running for president.
So the House GOP leadership deserves real credit for finally getting the cojones to back immigration reform. But their renewed political courage doesn't mean that they'll take the New Year momentum and translate it into an immediate push for passage. Instead, the strategy seems to be to wait until the intra-party Republican primaries are over by early summer. From Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to many GOP members of congress (who are decried as Republicans-in-Name-Only by an activist class who complains that they only have a 75 per cent conservative rating), the primaries are a time of high political risk.
Despite the rigged system of redistricting and state-by-state polarization that conspires to create an unprecedented number of safe seats, incumbents stand the greatest chance of losing power in a low-turn out primary election, where they might be accused of being insufficiently conservative.
And despite Tea Party support falling to new lows in national opinion polls, in primary elections they can still be a force to fear – one consequence of which is the further delay and possible derailment of immigration reform. This is the Tea Party tail wagging the national policy dog. After all, the closer we get to November's mid-term elections, the more difficult it is to pass major legislation because politicos become more pre-occupied with fighting than fixing.
Immigration reform is a hugely consequential microcosm of the national political debate. Responsible Republicans realize they have an obligation to propose rather than just oppose. But the increasingly isolated conservative populist base is pre-occupied with resisting cultural change and while 82 per cent of Tea Partiers see illegal immigration as a serious problem that doesn't lead logically to support for reality-based proposals that seek to solve the problem. No wonder so many politicians see more upside in demagogue-ing the issue than dealing with it.
What's changed is that Boehner and other members of the Republican leadership now recognize that they – and the country – cannot be held hostage by the impractical ideological fervor of 50 or so House radicals and their enablers among the fundraising racket activist class.
The choice is between governing and grandstanding, leaving a constructive legacy that will lead to long-term political gains or giving in to the fetid heat of those folks who would ruin if they cannot rule.
John Avlon is Editor-in-Chief of the Daily Beast
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